Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
